Russian lawmakers have officially scheduled the presidential vote for March 17, 2024, potentially facilitating Putin's fifth term.Unanimously, members of Russia's upper house, the Federation Council, approved a decree designating March 17, 2024, for the presidential vote."This decision essentially initiates the election campaign," remarked Valentina Matviyenko, the Federation Council speaker. Russia's central election commission will convene Friday on the presidential campaign.At 71, Putin has not formally declared his candidacy, but with the set date, an announcement is anticipated soon.
Through orchestrated constitutional reforms, Putin, eligible for two more six-year terms, could extend his leadership until 2036 after the current term expires next year.With a firm grip on Russia's political landscape, Putin's triumph in the March election appears inevitable. Key critics, potential challengers, are either imprisoned or abroad, and independent media is largely banned.
Despite the costly Ukraine war and a failed rebellion led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin last summer, Putin's high approval ratings seem unaffected, as reported by independent pollsters.The challengers on the ballot remain uncertain. Two declared candidates are former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, holding a municipal council seat in Moscow region, and Yekaterina Duntsova, a journalist-lawyer from Tver region, once a local legislature member.
Igor Strelkov's allies, supporters of the jailed hard-line nationalist critical of Putin, mentioned his potential candidacy. However, extremism charges by Russian authorities make his bid unlikely.Strelkov, a former security officer who commanded Moscow-backed separatists in 2014, criticized Putin as a "nonentity" and a "cowardly mediocrity." Jailed since July, he faces charges, including murder in the Netherlands for the downing of a Malaysia Airlines jet in 2014. A potential conviction could result in a five-year prison term.
Securing a spot on the ballot for Nadezhdin and Duntsova poses a challenge. Without nomination by one of the five State Duma parties, they must amass tens of thousands of signatures across various regions.Under Russian election laws, candidates from parties not in the State Duma or a third of regional legislatures require at least 100,000 signatures from 40 or more regions. Independent candidates need a minimum of 300,000 signatures from 40 or more regions.
Similar requirements apply to Putin, who employed varied strategies. In 2018, he ran independently, collecting signatures. In 2012, as the Kremlin's United Russia party nominee, signature collection was unnecessary.Independent political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin predicts Putin's 2024 candidacy as an independent, emphasizing his self-esteem. Oreshkin anticipates signature collection, serving as a pretext for regional campaign promotion.
As a professor at the Free University in Riga, Latvia, Oreshkin expects Putin, along with less popular candidates like Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov and Nadezhdin, to feature on the ballot.The central election commission intends to incorporate online voting and traditional paper ballots in approximately 30 Russian regions. They are contemplating a three-day voting period, a measure adopted during the pandemic and criticized by independent election monitors.
Stanislav Andreychuk, co-chair of Golos, a key independent election monitoring group, asserts that recent restrictions, coupled with the proposed measures, will significantly hinder the presence of independent observers.Andreychuk informed The Associated Press that only registered candidates or state-backed advisory bodies like the Civic Chambers can appoint observers to polling stations, diminishing the presence of truly independent watchdogs. The transparency of online voting is minimal, and a three-day ballot duration makes it extremely challenging to oversee nearly 100,000 polling stations, especially in preventing potential tampering at night.
Andreychuk emphasized, "The most significant challenge currently is conducting regular monitoring at the polls."
"We will be working in any case," Andreychuk affirmed regarding Golos' plans. They will conduct monitoring throughout the campaign and support activists present at polling stations on election day.
Analyst Oreshkin suggested that the upcoming vote will be more of a "ritual" than a genuinely competitive electoral process.
Oreshkin highlighted, "This electoral ritual, electoral rite, holds significant importance for Putin and his team. It gauges the loyalty of regional elites and signals the functionality of the system."
