Donald Trump has consistently defied political norms time and again. This year, he secured the Republican nomination for president despite facing four separate criminal indictments.
One might assume that Trump's ability to thrive amidst legal challenges indicates a reversal of conventional wisdom – that somehow, his legal entanglements are bolstering his political standing.
However, while this may have held some truth during the primaries, the dynamics shift in the general election. There's little evidence to suggest that Trump's legal woes are benefiting him among the broader electorate, even if they aren't necessarily harming him.
Looking at Trump's polling numbers against President Joe Biden, one might expect Trump to gain ground if his legal battles were working in his favor. After all, attention has shifted away from the election toward the New York hush money trial.
Yet, Biden has, if anything, gained momentum over the past few months, with both candidates securing their party nominations. While the exact shifts in polling numbers vary by pollster, Biden trailed by approximately 2 points on average during the peak of the Republican primary a few months back.
Presently, the race between Biden and Trump is virtually tied nationally, with some polls showing Biden leading within the margin of error (e.g., Marist College and Reuters/Ipsos), others showing Trump ahead within the margin of error (e.g., the New York Times/Siena College and NBC News), and some indicating a dead heat (e.g., Quinnipiac University).
Taking a broader perspective, Trump's first criminal indictment in New York occurred in late March 2023. Polls from that time reflected similar sentiments to those of today. Some pollsters had Trump leading within the margin of error (e.g., Ipsos), while others had Biden ahead within the margin of error (e.g., Quinnipiac), and some showed a tied race (e.g., Marquette University Law School).
It seems there might be a misinterpretation of the polling data. For instance, in the New York hush money case, most Americans don't believe Trump committed a crime, according to the latest CNN/SSRS poll. Similarly, many don't think these charges, if true, would disqualify him from the presidency.
However, this doesn't imply that Americans perceive Trump's actions favorably. About a third believe he acted unethically, if not illegally, in the New York case. Moreover, a significant portion of the public sees Trump's behavior during his trial as inappropriate rather than appropriate.
The lack of a polling boost for Trump can be attributed to the fact that his narrative, claiming these cases are a political witch hunt, isn't resonating with the majority of Americans.
In fact, those closely following Trump's legal proceedings tend to favor Biden, according to Times polling.
While Trump is indeed raising substantial funds amid his legal battles, he's also spending a considerable sum on legal fees. Trump's committees have reportedly spent over $75 million on legal costs, far more than Biden's campaign.
It remains uncertain whether the funds Trump raises due to appeals to his base during legal troubles offset the expenses incurred by his committees.
The silver lining for Trump is that he's neck and neck with Biden nationally, and he may have an edge in swing states crucial for determining the next president. However, facing an incumbent with low approval ratings and perceived age issues may not be the triumphant position it appears to be.
