Iran carried out a retaliatory strike against Israel on Saturday, posing a potential trigger for a regional conflict involving U.S. military presence. The offensive, reportedly involving over 300 missiles and drones according to Israeli sources, signifies Iran's inaugural direct military assault on the Jewish state.
Approximately 30 cruise missiles were launched towards Israel, with Israeli fighter jets intercepting 25, preventing any incursion into the country, stated Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, in the early hours of Sunday. Despite this, several of the nearly 120 ballistic missiles fired managed to breach Israeli airspace, causing minimal damage to infrastructure at the Nevatim Air Force Base, which remains fully operational.
Although a 10-year-old girl was gravely injured in the attack, casualties were otherwise avoided, Hagari affirmed. The incident prompted the treatment of around 31 individuals for anxiety or minor injuries sustained while seeking shelter during the sounding of sirens, according to Israel’s primary emergency response service.
In a late Saturday statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin revealed that the U.S. military had intercepted "numerous" missiles and drones bound for Israel from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, labeling Iran's assault as "unprecedented."
Austin's statement denounced these audacious and unparalleled attacks by Iran and its proxies, urging Iran to immediately cease any further aggression, including actions by its proxy forces, and to ease tensions. "While we do not seek confrontation with Iran, we remain resolute in safeguarding our forces and supporting Israel's defense," he emphasized.
Iran's U.N. Mission responded on X, asserting that its military action was retaliatory to Israel's strike on an Iranian diplomatic establishment in Syria, seemingly referring to the April 1 bombing of an Iranian consular facility in Damascus, which claimed the lives of two generals and five officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The statement declared Iran's view that the matter was concluded following the missile and drone attacks. However, it cautioned that should Israel commit "another error," Iran would respond with "a significantly harsher" retaliation.
President Joe Biden stated that he had a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu overnight, reiterating the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel's security. He commended the nation's capability to repel assaults, sending a strong message to those who pose a threat to Israel's safety.
Biden announced plans to convene with his G7 counterparts tomorrow to synchronize a cohesive diplomatic response to Iran's audacious attack. He emphasized that his team would liaise with regional counterparts and maintain close communication with Israeli leadership.
U.S. officials disclosed that American forces in Iraq and Syria, along with naval vessels in the vicinity, were engaged in countering the Iranian offensive. Among them is the USS Carney, a destroyer actively involved in neutralizing missiles and drones launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Yemen in the Red Sea.
Throughout years of strained relations with Israel, Iran has previously sidestepped direct confrontation with the Jewish state, instead choosing to undermine its foe through surrogate groups in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and other regions.
In clandestine communications with the U.S. spanning the last fortnight, Iran hinted at retaliating against Israel but expressed a desire to sidestep a conflict escalation that could spiral into full-scale warfare, as per U.S. officials.
The looming question is whether Iran's offensive will be perceived as intended by Tehran or provoke an unintended response from Israel, potentially igniting an uncontrollable spiral of violence, analysts cautioned.
Growing tensions
Tensions in the area have reached a boiling point following Hamas' lethal Oct. 7 terrorist incident and large-scale hostage crisis, coupled with Israel's subsequent extensive offensive in the Gaza Strip. This onslaught has resulted in the deaths of over 33,000 individuals and has pushed the populace to the brink of famine.
The explosion at the Iranian consular facility in Damascus claimed the lives of two of Iran's top commanders, including Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a prominent member of the Quds Force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite foreign intelligence unit.
Zahedi's demise marked the highest-ranking Iranian official's killing since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was targeted in an American airstrike in 2020.
Zahedi played a pivotal role in orchestrating the so-called Axis of Resistance — the coalition of Iran-backed factions opposed to Israel and the West, operating alongside militants from various Arab nations. Presently, Tehran supports Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, all of which have either directly attacked Israel or carried out assaults in recent months under the banner of resistance against Israel.
How will Netanyahu respond?
There is concern among top U.S. officials that Israel could quickly respond to Iran’s attacks without thinking through the potential fallout, according to a senior administration official and a senior defense official.
Those concerns stem in part from the Biden administration’s views of the approach Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have taken to Israel's war against Hamas, as well as the attack in Damascus.
U.S. officials have privately expressed frustration with Israel’s decision to strike the Iranian consulate in Syria, saying Israeli leaders did not think through the timing and implications of the attack, including how it might affect negotiations over the release of hostages held by Hamas.
“I don’t think they had a strategy,” the senior administration official said. “The Israelis don’t always make the best strategic decisions.”
Senior leaders at the Pentagon also have privately expressed frustration at the timing of the Damascus strike, according to the senior defense official, because it had the potential to be “catastrophically escalatory.”
In the days leading up to Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel, U.S. intelligence showed that Iran’s leaders felt the need to respond to Israel’s strike in Damascus due to concern of domestic blowback if the strike went unanswered, according to the senior administration official.
Biden has privately expressed concern that Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments.
While the White House believes the Israelis are not looking for a wider war or a direct war with Iran, particularly given the resources they have fighting the war in Gaza, U.S. officials can’t be certain, the senior administration official said.
The official described Israel’s approach to military operations as “frenetic.”
“There’s this urgency to act,” the official said, “and that’s what happened in Damascus.” The official said it’s the same frustration U.S. officials have with the way Israel is operating in Gaza.
The defense official echoed that sentiment, saying the Israelis have shown they are much better at operations than they are at planning. “They have surprised us with their really short-sided planning for the past few months so in that way Damascus isn’t as surprising,” the defense official said.
Now, the U.S. is contending with a potential war between rival nation states, the senior administration official said. That would be a dramatic and dangerous expansion of the long-simmering conflict between Iran and Israel that could further destabilize the Middle East.
