Chinese leader Xi Jinping engaged in rare discussions on Wednesday with a former president of Taiwan who advocates for closer relations with China, a highly uncommon encounter just weeks before the democratic island inaugurates a new leader Beijing openly dislikes.
Ma Ying-jeou, who served as Taiwan's president from 2008 to 2016 and is presently on an 11-day journey across China, met with Xi on Wednesday afternoon, as reported by state broadcaster CCTV.
This meticulously orchestrated occasion is laden with political significance: it marks the first instance a former president of Taiwan has been received by China's paramount leader in Beijing since Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) retreated to Taipei in 1949.
It is additionally the initial encounter between Xi and former KMT chief Ma, following their landmark summit in Singapore in 2015.
Nevertheless, their reunion also underscores the growing political schism across the Taiwan Strait – and how Xi's increasingly assertive stance towards Taipei has pushed more Taiwanese further from China.
In his introductory statements, Xi commended Ma for resisting "Taiwan independence", fostering cross-strait interactions, and acknowledging that both shores of the strait are part of "one China."
"Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese nationals. There is no resentment that cannot be resolved, no matter that cannot be discussed, and no power that can divide us," Xi conveyed to his visitor. "External interference cannot halt the inevitable course of the family and country's reunification."
In reply, Ma articulated that despite the differing systems on both sides of the strait, the populace belongs to the Chinese ethnicity.
"If conflict arises between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, it will be an insufferable burden for the Chinese people," he asserted. "I earnestly desire that both sides uphold the values and cherished way of life of the people and uphold peace across the strait."
However, the allure of a shared Chinese identity has significantly diminished in Taiwan as Xi intensifies military, economic, and diplomatic pressures on its democratic island counterpart.
This tendency was highlighted in January when Taiwanese voters disregarded China's warnings and granted the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a historic third term by electing Lai Ching-te, who has long drawn Beijing's ire for advocating Taiwan's sovereignty.
Since then, Beijing has enticed another of Taipei's diminishing roster of diplomatic allies and heightened patrols around Taiwan's frontline islands following the drowning of two Chinese fishermen in nearby waters, while persisting in flying its military aircraft near the self-governed island.
Ma's encounter with Xi also aligns with an energetic week of diplomatic engagements in Washington, where President Joe Biden will convene the inaugural leaders' summit between the US, Japan, and the Philippines. Collective apprehensions regarding China's escalating assertiveness under Xi, including toward Taiwan, are a principal impetus behind that summit.
A reliable source within the Taiwan government informed CNN that Beijing rescheduled the meeting to coincide with the summit between Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday.
Talks preconditions
China's pressure tactics aim to prod Taiwan's incoming Lai administration towards a more conciliatory political stance towards China, remarked Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group.
"Ma's visit perpetuates this endeavor by emphasizing Beijing's stance that cross-strait dialogue is only feasible with individuals in Taiwan who endorse the notion that both sides of the strait belong to 'one China,'" she explained.
Beijing has severed high-level official communications with Taipei since President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP assumed office in 2016, capitalizing on a surge of resentment over Ma's contentious trade agreement with Beijing and leveraging the increasing number of Taiwanese voters adamant about preserving the island's distinct identity.
In contrast to the KMT, the DPP refuses Beijing's prerequisite for official negotiations – a pact wherein both sides acknowledge the concept of "one China," with their respective interpretations.
There seems to be slim prospects for official dialogue to recommence under Lai, who has pledged to uphold Tsai's policies concerning cross-strait relations. Beijing has consistently dismissed Lai's overtures for talks, branding him as a dangerous separatist and "instigator of unrest."
However, by concentrating on Ma, who has been absent from office for years and holds little influence over Taiwan's political landscape, Beijing might be demonstrating "its failure to identify or nurture another Taiwanese political figure of comparable prominence willing to adopt a conciliatory stance towards Beijing at present," remarked Wen-Ti Sung, a Taiwan-based fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.
Beijing’s messaging
Ma is increasingly becoming a frequent visitor to the Chinese mainland.
Last year, at the end of March, the 73-year-old became the inaugural former president of Taiwan to step foot on the mainland, embarking on a 12-day journey across the Taiwan Strait. However, he was unable to secure an audience with any leader on the Politburo Standing Committee, Beijing's most influential inner circle.
Similar to his previous visit, this year's trip was scheduled to coincide with the Qingming Festival – traditionally a period for individuals to honor deceased family members and venerate their ancestors. Moreover, it occurs just weeks before Lai's assumption of office as Taiwan's president on May 20.
"At this moment, a meeting allows Beijing to emphasize the common cultural heritage between Taiwan and China, while applying pressure on Taiwan's incoming administration," Sung remarked.
"Beijing is leveraging this encounter between Xi and Ma to highlight the reliability and sustainability of its incentives – that Beijing honors its alliances, whether current or retired. It sends a message to global political leaders that fostering ties with Beijing is a worthwhile investment for the long haul."
China's acceptance of Ma's visit also indicates to Taiwan and others that peaceful reunification through winning hearts and minds remains Beijing's preferred approach – at least for now, despite escalating tensions across the strait, Sung added.
Moreover, meticulously selected footage of the discussions – anticipated to reach countless households during prime-time news broadcasts in China – further communicates to the Chinese populace that reunification with Taiwan is still within reach despite the DPP's landmark electoral triumph.
"For Beijing, Ma's visit is also an effective means of reassuring its domestic audience – 'We haven't lost the support of the Taiwanese people; there are still cultural and historical bonds that unite us, and the DPP doesn't represent the mainstream views of Taiwan,'" noted Hsiao, the analyst.
‘A journey of peace’
Traveling in a personal capacity, Ma characterized his journey as a "voyage of peace and camaraderie" prior to departing for the mainland accompanied by a group of Taiwanese students.
He has been extensively covered by Chinese state media, being referred to simply as "Mr. Ma Ying-jeou" or the former chairman of the KMT, with no acknowledgment of his previous role as the president of Taiwan.
In Guangzhou, a southern metropolis, he paid homage by bowing in front of a memorial commemorating a failed rebellion against the Qing Dynasty led by Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Republic of China (Taiwan's official name). Sun is revered as the architect of modern China on both sides of the strait.
In the northwestern region of Shaanxi, Ma participated in a ceremony commemorating the Yellow Emperor, a legendary progenitor of the Chinese populace, and urged young individuals in Taiwan to "preserve the essence of Chinese culture and the Chinese heritage."
While atop the Great Wall in Beijing, he sang a Chinese nationalist song concerning the resistance against Japanese invaders during World War II. This melody, crafted in the early stages of the invasion, enjoyed popularity among both the Communist and Nationalist factions.
However, his emphasis on a shared Chinese identity is increasingly discordant with prevailing sentiments in Taiwan, where less than 3% of the populace presently identify primarily as Chinese, and fewer than 10% endorse an immediate or eventual reunification.
Concurrently, surveys demonstrate a rising proportion of individuals – particularly among younger voters – identifying themselves distinctly as Taiwanese and harboring no aspiration to integrate with China.
Reaction in Taiwan
Ma's agenda – as well as his rendezvous with Xi – has been under close scrutiny in Taiwan.
"The governing DPP is expected to downplay the significance of Ma's visits to China, preferring to portray it as the personal tourism endeavors of a retired individual," remarked Sung, from the Atlantic Council.
"The opposition KMT faces a dilemma – it desires to commemorate Ma's achievements with Beijing, yet is hesitant to showcase it openly to the Taiwanese electorate, which remains cautious about deepening cross-strait relations."
Despite Ma's continued membership in the KMT, which secured the most seats in Taiwan's parliamentary elections in January but fell short of winning the presidency for the third consecutive time, his meeting may pose more challenges than benefits, according to James Chen, an assistant professor specializing in diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
"The DPP and its supporters have questioned Ma's allegiance at home and branded the KMT as pro-China. Washington, particularly Capitol Hill, may not view Ma's visit to China favorably amid the bipartisan anti-China sentiment," he noted.
Few analysts anticipate any significant alteration to the status quo in cross-strait relations stemming from the meeting.
"The significance of this meeting lies primarily in its symbolism – an endeavor to mold the cross-strait narrative to the advantage of both parties while enduring political disparities persist," emphasized Hsiao, from the International Crisis Group.
However, for Ma, the meeting will solidify his legacy in cross-strait policy, irrespective of its outcome.
"He likely aspires to be remembered as the singular Taiwanese leader capable of breaking the ice with Beijing," Sung speculated.
